SHFE tin prices opened lower and continued to decline during the night session, with the spot market possibly heating up [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on May 22, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened lower and continued to decline during the night session, sliding to around 266,000 yuan/mt, a slight drop from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China's economy has a solid foundation, strong resilience, and great potential. The fundamental trend of long-term positive growth remains unchanged and will not change. (Bullish ★) (2) The European Commission plans to impose a 2-euro tax on small parcels entering the EU. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, hoping that the EU will adhere to its commitment to openness. (Bullish ★) (3) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): From May 1 to 18, nationwide passenger vehicle retail sales increased by 12% YoY and 18% MoM. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① It is reported that the EU plans to propose a trade initiative with the US to advance negotiations. ② Nike will raise prices in the US, and Amazon's CEO stated that tariffs have not reduced demand. ③ Lutnick: He hopes to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the tariff suspension expires this summer. (Neutral)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin from April 15 to May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing recovery rate. Tin production commenced by processing raw ore stockpiles from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. Blasting and transportation of underground ore began in the last week of April 2025, with the mine development rate also increasing. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, and there was some release of demand for restocking at lower prices, but high-price transactions remained sluggish. (Bearish ★)

Spot Market: Driven by the strong rally in the most-traded SHFE tin contract yesterday, spot tin ingot prices surged significantly. However, high prices significantly suppressed actual transactions, intensifying the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. The market exhibited a pattern of "high prices with little trading," with transactions mainly consisting of small orders to meet immediate needs.